Fertiliser Prices Shock Australian Farmers

Article by: Hari Yellina (Orchard Tech)

In Australia, it is hard to get a handle on fertiliser pricing data, so it is best to analyse a model to work out what roughly fertiliser pricing should be in Australia. As far as we are aware, Thomas Elder Markets there is that hope it helps farmers and the broader industry get better insights into pricing levels for one of their most important inputs.

The CFR+ model sounds more complex than it is.

It is basically a simple addition of factors* that drive the price:

• The cost of purchase at origin – loaded onto the boat.
• The freight cost to destination (Australia).
• The cost of discharging

Fertiliser prices have increased dramatically in recent months and continue to be hampered by high energy prices and the subsequent political moves (quotas/bans). Also, the urea price has increased by 92 per cent since September when the fertiliser market started coming under real strain, although most worrying is that the price is up 230pc since last November. The modelled price for December is currently in the range of A$1400-1430. As Chinese exports are unavailable, Australia has switched to Morocco although there are rumours of Mexican cargoes loading in December.